US Dollar Index Plunges, Boosting Copper Prices; BC Copper Most-Traded Contract Surges Sharply [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

SMM March 6 News: Today, the most-traded BC copper 2504 futures contract opened higher and moved upward, starting at 69,430 yuan/mt, closing with a bullish candlestick, with the upper shadow piercing the upper Bollinger Band. Overnight, the most-traded BC copper 04 contract opened higher with a gap and fluctuated rangebound above 69,000 yuan/mt, hitting bottom at 69,230 yuan/mt. During the morning trading session, with bulls entering the market, futures prices rose to test the 70,000 yuan/mt level, peaking at 70,170 yuan/mt. In the afternoon trading session, the most-traded BC copper 04 contract fluctuated within the range of 69,840-70,090 yuan/mt, eventually closing at 69,930 yuan/mt, up 1,370 yuan/mt or 2.00%. The increase was mainly driven by long positions, with open interest reaching 8,625 lots, up 1,156 lots from the previous trading day, and trading volume reaching 11,951 lots, an increase of 1,570 lots from the previous day.

Macro side, US February ADP employment data recorded 77,000, significantly below the expected 140,000. Coupled with the recent weakening of economic data, yesterday, Trump announced a 25% tariff on US copper imports, raising market concerns about the risk of US "stagflation." Meanwhile, Germany announced a key fiscal expansion plan, strengthening the euro, while the US dollar index quickly fell back to the 104 level, significantly boosting copper prices.

The SHFE copper 2504 contract closed at 78,260 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2504 contract price of 69,930 yuan/mt, its post-tax price is approximately 79,021 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2504 contract and the BC copper 2504 contract was -761 yuan/mt, with the spread remaining inverted and widening compared to the previous trading day.